Robots are poised to cause millions of people to lose their jobs, government newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta wrote on Monday. Some people fear that jobs are just the tip of the iceberg, and that robots represent a threat to the existence of the human race.
A slew of recent reports on robots replacing humans at work has led to fears of impending mass joblessness.
Monday’s newspaper article cited a recent report by the World Economic Forum that concluded that 5 million human jobs will be lost to robots by 2020.
“There are already examples of robots successfully trading on the stock exchange, analysing vast amounts of data for corporations, working at warehouses and in manufacturing, and even formulating strategy for business games,” Rossiiskaya Gazeta wrote. “It’s not out of the question that in the near future they could replace the directors and CEOs of major companies.”
A day earlier, Britain’s Royal Bank of Scotland announced it was cutting 220 jobs by replacing human financial advisers with automated services known as “robo-advice.” This week’s reports were only the latest in a series of anxious articles and statements suggesting that the rise of robots in the workplace could lead to mass unemployment – and worse.
Last month, Moshe Vardi, a computer scientist professor at Rice University in Texas, told the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) that machines would soon be able to outperform humans at almost any task – a prediction supported by news this week that Google’s AlphaGo computer had beaten the multiple world champion in the ancient Chinese board game Go in four games out of five, despite expectations to the contrary.
Robots are used extensively in factories for welding and finishing.
“I believe that society needs to confront this question before it is upon us: if machines are capable of doing almost any work humans can do, what will humans do?” Vardi was cited by media as saying, adding that AI could drive global unemployment to 50 percent.
While some jobs will disappear because of robots, the future of jobs overall isn't nearly as gloomy as many believe, J. P. Gownder, vice-president and principal analyst at Forrester Research, wrote in an opinion piece for ComputerWeekly.com in January.
“In reality, automation will spur the growth of many new jobs — including some entirely new job categories,” he wrote, adding that the biggest effect would be change in the workplace that would see humans working side by side with robots.
“For every 10 jobs cannibalised by automation, one new job is created in software, engineering, design, maintenance, support, training or other work area,” Gownder wrote.
Filling a deficit
Some of the jobs that robots will take over are those of skilled workers where in some countries there is currently a deficit, says Albert Yefimov, head of the Skolkovo Foundation’s Robocentre.
“On some oil platforms in the North Sea there are literally not enough skilled workers, and there’s nowhere to get them from – it’s not just that one country has a deficit,” he said. “That means their labour will become more expensive, prompting the question of how to replace them. And they can only be replaced by robots.”
Yefimov says that robots will also help to solve the impending crisis on some job markets of an ageing population.
“Soon there simply won’t be enough young people to look after the old, either financially or physically. So everything that will increase work productivity among young people or help them to care for the elderly will be needed. This is particularly the case in developed countries, especially Japan, but also the U.S., Russia and other countries,” he said.
Dmitry Teteryukov, a robotics professor at the Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology (Skoltech), believes the figure of 5 million jobs is entirely realistic.
“This will undoubtedly lead to a loss of jobs for many employees – only they are not losses, but opportunities for those who those now going into a profession in automation and IT,” he said.
“I’m sure that a lot of startups will appear in the near future that will offer inexpensive, intuitive robotics solutions for industry,” said Teteryukov.
He predicts that robot technology will have the biggest impact on sectors such as the assembly of smartphones and household appliances, warehouses and retail centres, driverless transport, agriculture, space technologies and cargo delivery.
Albert Yefimov says robots will save some job sectors. Photo: Skolkovo Robocentre.
Unlike computer scientist Vardi, entrepreneur and author Martin Ford does not see human idleness as a negative consequence of handing over labour tasks to robots.
In his book “Rise of the Robots,” Ford advocates for guaranteed incomes for humans, which he says will be made possible due to the robotisation of the workplace. Having a guaranteed income will, he says, make people more inclined to take risks, boosting entrepreneurial spirit and ensuring the economy continues to develop rather than stagnating.
Fear of the killer robot
There are those who fear far more than the loss of their job to a robot, however. While a recent video of a human testing a robot’s abilities by obstructing it and pushing it over elicited jokes that when the robots take over, they will make humans pay for such treatment, other concerns are far from humorous.
The Campaign to Stop Killer Robots is an international coalition of NGOs that calls for a preemptive ban on fully autonomous weapons. The organisation has lobbied the UN, and this week saw a small victory when two UN experts issued a report at the Human Rights Council in Geneva that recommended that “autonomous weapons systems that require no meaningful human control should be prohibited.”
Such a ban is also supported by the prominent U.K. theoretical physicist Stephen Hawking and U.S. technology entrepreneur Elon Musk, who last year signed an open letter arguing that while AI has great potential to benefit humanity in many ways, a military AI arms race would not be beneficial for humanity.
Hawking has warned that “the development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race.” Musk, who has created a non-profit AI research company called OpenAI, said it represented “our biggest existential threat.” Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates has also warned of the dangers of AI.
Ethical issues
Nikolai Suetin, head of science and technology within the Skolkovo Foundation’s IT cluster, concedes that the issue of using AI in military weapons is a complex one.
“Since AI is created by people, who are not infallible, [ethical] problems can arise and already exist,” he told Gazeta.ru in a recent interview.
The use of drones for military purposes has caused concern. Photo: Skolkovo Robocentre
“In particular, it’s completely unclear how to solve the problems of using AI in military drones: can machines make decisions for themselves on the use of weapons? And how should the behavior of a robot be regulated in an emergency situation, when there is risk of harm to a human?
Suetin also cited the possibility of AI being used by terrorist or criminal organisations, including for cybercrime.
Yefimov said that the letters against artificial intelligence written by prominent scientists had shocked him.
“The danger from AI is so exaggerated that I am forced to wonder whether these people are in their right minds, although some, like Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking, are totally rational people,” said Yefimov.
“AI that could in any way pose a threat to people is centuries away, and overall it brings nothing but advantages to people,” he said.